From most dominant F1 car to fourth: what has gone wrong at Red Bull?

Four months ago, ahead of race six of the 2024 F1 season in Miami, nothing confirmed how assured and dominant Red Bull were in Formula 1 like their unprecedented streak of success on the track. Four wins out of five, three one-two finishes out of five. And, when you include the two preceding seasons, 35 wins from 38 races. A fourth straight title for Max Verstappen looked like a foregone conclusion.
Not anymore. Not now, with Lando Norris gradually cutting Verstappen’s lead in the drivers’ standings, and McLaren just six points behind in the constructors’ championship. The previously irrepressible Verstappen now looks lost at sea, without a win in six races, and with familiar complaints raging across the airwaves. His main hope looks, at this point, to be McLaren bottling their opportunity: the papaya’s indecisiveness could well save his title.
Regardless, after a weekend where Red Bull were indisputably the fourth-quickest car at the Italian Grand Prix, Verstappen was gloom ridden. After races at a high-downforce circuit in Zandvoort and a low-downforce circuit in Monza, it is now clear: Red Bull are off the pace.
“At the moment both championships are not realistic,” he said, after finishing sixth in a damage limitation performance. “There are no excuses. Last year we had a great car, the most dominant car ever, but we have turned it into a monster so we have to turn it around. We have gone from a dominant car to an undriveable car in the space of six to eight months. That is very weird. We need to turn the car upside down.”
So what’s gone wrong at Red Bull? It’s hard not to analyse the rapid decline and see the symmetry with design genius Adrian Newey’s departure. Since Red Bull’s chief technology officer announced he was leaving the team after 19 years – for a rest, he said, but also with the controversy surrounding team boss Christian Horner a factor in his decision – Red Bull have won just three races out of 11. Verstappen has not tasted victory since 23 June in Barcelona.
“I always said I would have preferred if Adrian stayed but it is not about that now,” Verstappen added in Monza.
Yet the reality goes beyond Newey, whose mastery of the current ground-effect era of regulations no doubt propelled Red Bull to historic results. Much can be pointed at the simple fact that McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes have finally got to grips – after three years – with this generation of cars.
While Red Bull looked to have reached the limit of their development curve, their rivals have improved over time and, notably, mid-season upgrades have been extremely effective. McLaren brought a host of new features to Zandvoort last week and won; Ferrari did the same in Monza this week and won. Yet for Red Bull, after a set of upgrades actually saw their pace decline in Imola in May, it seems they have reached their maximum capability with the RB20.
Specifically, the balance of the car is consistently inconsistent, with Verstappen complaining about a lot of understeer on Saturday after qualifying, while preparing the tyres and optimising their temperature has also been a problem. Twisty street circuits in high humidity next up in Baku and Singapore will highlight these issues even more.
Then there is Sergio Perez, Verstappen’s much-criticised teammate, who described the RB20 as like steering a “boat”. The Mexican has not finished in the top five since Miami and, before the August break, seemed likely to lose his seat. Yet Horner retained him, placing trust in Perez despite lacklustre results and early qualifying eliminations.
For a team as cutthroat and bold as Red Bull have been in their time in F1, it seems a peculiar call. Perez’s lack of points – in contrast to his teammate in first, he is languishing down in seventh, 160 points off Verstappen – is adversely affecting Red Bull’s chances of retaining their constructors’ crown.
Furthermore, when placed in front of Verstappen during the pair’s final run in Q3 on Saturday, Perez’s role was to aid his teammate with a helpful tow in the straights. Instead, he went wide in sector two, kicking up a host of gravel which impacted Verstappen’s final chance at pole position. While a late-season change seems unlikely, his future beyond this year is in peril.
Whether Red Bull will enter 2025 as world champions – something which a matter of months ago appeared a near certainty – is now in serious doubt. As mentioned, McLaren’s reluctance to prioritise Norris as their No 1 driver could save Verstappen on the drivers’ side.
With eight races and three sprint races to go, time is running out for the Brit, given the buffer Verstappen had before this sudden decline – now reduced to 62 points with 232 left on the table.
But on the constructors’ side, McLaren now trail by just six points – and look likely to take the lead in Azerbaijan in a fortnight. That would be the first different leader of the standings since early 2022. No doubt work will be intense at Red Bull HQ in Milton Keynes over the next weeks to find a solution. And fast.